Below are links to published works, some of which are available as free downloads as PDF files. Papers without links are available free to licence-holders of our software: see the Resources tab in mortalityrating.com, Longevitas or the Projections Toolkit. If you do not have a viewer for PDF files, you can get one free from Adobe.
Other publicly available material can be found amongst the articles, presentations and in the gallery. There is also further material specific to managing portfolios of annuities and pensions. Also available are the lecture notes for survival analysis.
Topical items can be found in our blog.
ORCID profile here.
Annuities and pensions
"A value-at-risk approach to mis-estimation risk" (2020) by Richards, S. J., Longevitas Working Paper. Available to licencees of our software services.
"Modelling seasonal mortality with individual data" (2020) by Richards, S. J., Ramonat, S. J., Vesper, G. and Kleinow, T., Scandinavian Actuarial Journal (to appear). Pre-print Final version The final journal version contains additional results for Australia.
"A Hermite-spline model for post-retirement mortality" (2019) by S. J. Richards, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2019, pages 1-18. Pre-print Final version
"Mis-estimation risk: measurement and impact" (2016) by S. J. Richards, British Actuarial Journal, 21(3), pages 429-475 (including discussion). Pre-print Final version
"Creating portfolio-specific mortality tables: a case study" (2013) by S. J. Richards, K. Kaufhold and S. Rosenbusch, European Actuarial Journal, 3(2), pages 295-319. Pre-print Final version
"A handbook of parametric survival models for actuarial use" (2012) by S. J. Richards, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2012 (4), pages 233-257. Pre-print Final version
"Survival models for actuarial work" (2011) by S. J. Richards, Note for the CMI. Final version
"Setting the proportion-married assumption" (2008) by S. J. Richards, Longevitas Technical Note. Available to licencees of our software services.
"Applying survival models to pensioner mortality data" (2008) by Richards, S. J., Presented to Sessional Meeting of Institute of Actuaries, February 25th 2008. Pre-print Final version
"Pricing demographic risks in bulk buy-outs" (2006) by Richards, S. J., . Pre-print
"Survey of annuity operations" (2005) by Richards, S. J., Richards Consulting. Available to licencees of our software services.
"Financial aspects of longevity risk" (2004) by Richards, S. J. and Jones, G. L., Staple Inn Actuarial Society. Final version This paper was listed as one of the top five papers every life actuary should know about at the 2006 Life Convention.
"Longevity in the 21st Century" (2004) by Willets, R. C, Gallop, A. P., Leandro, P. A., Lu, J. L. C., Macdonald, A. S., Miller, K. A., Richards, S. J., Robjohns, N., Ryan, J. P. and Waters, H. W., British Actuarial Journal, 10, IV, pages 695-898. Final version This paper won two prizes: one from the Faculty of Actuaries and another from the Institute of Actuaries.
Mortality projections
"Longevity trend risk over limited time horizons" (2020) by S. J. Richards, I. D. Currie, T. Kleinow and G. P. Ritchie, Annals of Actuarial Science, 1-16. Pre-print Final version
"A stochastic implementation of the APCI model for mortality projections" (2019) by S. J. Richards, I. D. Currie, T. Kleinow and G. P. Ritchie, British Actuarial Journal, 24, pages 1-26. Pre-print Final version
"Parameter risk in time-series mortality forecasts" (2016) by T. Kleinow and S. J. Richards, Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, 2016(10), pages 1-25. Pre-print Final version
"The best available approximation to the truth" (2013) by Richards, S. J., Editorial in British Actuarial Journal, Volume 18, Part II. Pre-print Final version
"A value-at-risk framework for longevity trend risk" (2014) by Richards, S. J., Currie, I. D. and Ritchie, G. P., British Actuarial Journal. Pre-print Final version
"Detecting year-of-birth mortality patterns with limited data" (2008) by Richards, S. J., Journal of Royal Statistical Society (Series A), 171 (1), pages 1-20. Final version Available to licencees of our software services.
"Correspondence: Detecting year-of-birth mortality patterns with limited data." (2010) by Richards, S. J., Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 173 (4). pp. 920-924. ISSN 09641998. Pre-print
"Selected Issues in Modelling Mortality by Cause and in Small Populations" (2009) by Richards, S. J., British Actuarial Journal, 15 Supplement, pages 267-283. Final version
"Longevity risk and annuity pricing with the Lee-Carter model" (2009) by Richards, S. J. and Currie, I. D., British Actuarial Journal, Volume 15, Part II, No. 65, pages 317-365 (including discussion). Pre-print Final version
"Two-dimensional mortality data: patterns and projections" (2007) by Richards, S. J., Ellam, J. R., Hubbard, J., Lu, J. L. C., Makin, S. J. and Miller, K. A., British Actuarial Journal, Volume 13, Part III, No. 59, pages 479-555. Pre-print Final version This paper was awarded the Faculty prize for best paper presented to a sessional meeting in the session 2006/2007.
"The importance of year of birth in two-dimensional mortality patterns" (2006) by Richards, S. J., Kirkby, J. G. and Currie, I. D., British Actuarial Journal, Volume 12, Part I, pages 5-61. Pre-print Final version
CMI working papers
"Stochastic projection methodologies: Lee-Carter model: features, example results and implications" (2007) by Macdonald, A. S., Gallop, A. P., Miller, K. A., Richards, S. J., Shah, R. and Willets, R. C., Continuous Mortality Investigation Bureau Working Paper No. 25.
"Stochastic projection methodologies: Further progress and P-Spline model features, example results and implications" (2006) by Macdonald, A. S., Gallop, A. P., Miller, K. A., Richards, S. J., Shah, R. and Willets, R. C., Continuous Mortality Investigation Bureau Working Paper No. 20.
"Projecting future mortality: Towards a proposal for a stochastic methodology" (2005) by Macdonald, A. S., Gallop, A. P., Miller, K. A., Richards, S. J., Shah, R. and Willets, R. C., Continuous Mortality Investigation Bureau Working Paper No. 15.
"Projecting future mortality" (2004) by Macdonald, A. S., Gallop, A. P., Miller, K. A., Richards, S. J., Shah, R. and Willets, R. C., Continuous Mortality Investigation Bureau Working Paper No. 3.
General mortality
"Uncertainty in measuring mortality" (2006) by Richards, S. J., Richards Consulting. Available to licencees of our software services.
"Damaging your DNA" (2006) by Richards, S. J., Richards Consulting.
"Introduction to modelling mortality in R" (2005) by Richards, S. J., Richards Consulting. Available to licencees of our software services.
"Splines in Mortality Modelling" (2005) by Richards, S. J., Richards Consulting.
Germany
"International expansion: a U.K. perspective" (2000) by Grenham, D. J., Chakraborty, D. C., Chatterjee, A., Daelman, P. J., Heistermann, B., Hogg, L., Mungall, J. R., Porteous, B. T., Richards, S. J., Shum, M. C. and Taylor, J., British Actuarial Journal, Volume 6, Part I, No. 26. Final version